Gold has been unable to recover following a disappointing September, when the price fell by 6% against the backdrop of a Fed rate hike, a strengthening US dollar and a surge in long-term Treasury yields to 24-year highs. Other factors weighing on gold include oil’s stubborn refusal to fall, despite reports of a resumption of exports from the Middle East.

High energy prices suggest that inflationary pressures remain, forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, which works against gold. The resumption of attacks by Iran on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure has pushed the price of Brent back above $100 per barrel, triggering another wave of sell-offs in risky assets across the markets. According to Kpler, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 91% to 74% of pre-war levels.

This is all the more so as investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will tighten policy in October or postpone the move until December. CME futures put the probability of a rate rise in three weeks at 22% for October and 85% for December; however, FOMC officials are expressing conflicting views. Consequently, investors are playing it safe ahead of the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, hoping for clarification on the central bank’s stance.

While everyone is selling, a great opportunity to buy is emerging. In September, China increased its gold reserves by a further 740,000 ounces, marking the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation. Meanwhile, according to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), central bank activity, coupled with mounting fiscal challenges and persistently high geopolitical risks, will drive gold prices to $5,013 per ounce within 12 months.

The LBMA noted that the energy crisis, persistent inflation, and rising bond yields to 24-year highs are creating a strong headwind for precious metals. The fact that the price of an ounce of gold has remained above $4,000 so far is evidence of strong demand for the physical asset.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: A strong dollar, rising yields and costly oil weigh on gold, while central-bank buying and firm physical demand support the outlook for a recovery.
Fig. 1. The rise in oil prices since September is putting pressure on gold.
Fig. 2. Gold and the Fed’s key interest rate.

Gold,goldeuro,goldgr,brent,wti

The US dollar has retreated from 18-month highs since Monday afternoon on signs that debt markets are stabilising. Investors reacted cautiously to news of snap elections in Spain against the backdrop of the housing crisis. The yield spread between local and German bonds fell below 140 basis points, whilst EURUSD rebounded to 1.1240 after slipping to 1.1160 at the start of trading on Monday. The initial shock has passed, but this does not mean the end of the European drama.

The US dollar is finding support thanks to the strong appeal of US assets, including higher Treasury yields and the Fed’s more active monetary policy tightening. Even the slowdown in business activity in the services sector, as measured by the ISM, from 55.4 to 54.9, did not particularly alarm investors, as readings above 50 indicate that the economy remains in expansion, albeit at a slower pace.

Pressure on the euro stems not only from the fiscal crisis in France and the political crisis in Spain. The eurozone is a net importer of energy commodities, so the 65% rally in oil prices since the start of the year has worsened its terms of trade. Meanwhile, WTI crude has been falling for the fourth week running, having lost around 15% from its peak – twice the decline seen in Brent. All this is despite a recovery in exports to the Middle East, price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and Iraq’s search for new tankers, which are fuelling bearish sentiment on the EURUSD.

According to Vortexa, crude oil and condensate flows in September recovered to 91% of pre-war levels at 16.3M bpd. However, refined fuel exports from the Middle East stand at only 60% of pre-March levels. Kpler estimates that the share of petroleum product shipments via the Strait of Hormuz is 11% of total volume, significantly lower than the 20% recorded at the start of the year. The main reason for this is the closure of oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and other countries due to the hostilities.

Brent’s relative resilience stems from fears of further supply disruptions, coupled with pent-up demand in Eurasia following months of conflict that was originally intended to be short-term. Initially, Europe and China preferred to adopt a wait-and-see approach as prices rose, but by October, sentiment had shifted: there was simply no further room to delay purchases.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: Brent is falling more slowly than WTI: the risk of supply disruptions is supporting the premium, although exports from the Middle East are recovering. High oil prices and political risks are weighing on the euro.

Fig. 1. The US ISM Services Index remains firmly in expansionary territory.
Fig. 2. The German and US terms of trade indices are moving in opposite directions.

On Monday, Bitcoin once again failed to break through its recent highs, retreating to $85.2K by the start of active trading in Europe on Tuesday, while remaining at the upper end of the trading range seen over the past two weeks. The upward trend channel is under threat, but a breakout has not yet been confirmed. A break below $84K would signal a victory for the bears, and a break below the recent local lows at $83K would confirm this with even greater certainty. In this scenario, the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $80K fairly quickly.

News Background
Strategy has been buying Bitcoin for the third week in a row, adding a further 334 BTC worth $29 million. The company now holds 848,000 BTC, purchased at an average price of $75.4K.
Peter Schiff, head of Euro Pacific Capital and a crypto-sceptic, acknowledged that Strategy's STRC preference shares have recovered to almost their par value of $100. However, he said that Strategy had lost its main channel for raising funds by selling STRC, which it had previously used to buy Bitcoin. Since May, Strategy has been financing its BTC purchases using MSTR ordinary shares.
Strive made its largest Bitcoin purchase since June and got closer to MARA, which ranks fourth in corporate BTC reserves. Last week, the company purchased a further 2,000 BTC for $169 million, bringing its reserves to 29,462 BTC.
BitMine purchased an additional 15,112 ETH last week, bringing the total amount of Ethereum in its reserves to 6.016 million ETH (4.93% of the total supply). To reach its target of purchasing 5% of the total ETH supply, the company needs to buy a further 85,000 ETH.
The queue for withdrawals from Ethereum staking has grown to a year-to-date high of 786,000 ETH (around 2% of the total locked supply). Withdrawals currently take over 13 days. Around 1.5 million ETH has accumulated in the deposit queue, with a waiting time of approximately 25 days. The rate at which validators can join and leave the Ethereum network is limited to avoid sudden changes in the network's security parameters.
The FxPro Analyst Team

Fig. 1. The crypto market has taken a small step back from the upper boundary of the range.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin is testing its upward support.
Summary: The crypto market retreated by 0.7% to $2.91T amid a strong US dollar and a bond sell-off. Bitcoin is trading at $85.2K; a break below $84K would increase the risk of a decline towards $80K.

BITCOIN,ETHEREUM,FILECOIN,INTERNET,NEAR,DASH,STELLAR,GRAPH

Bitcoin is attempting to break higher. On Thursday, it failed to hold above $85K, but on Friday morning, it pushed into the $86–87K range, coming close to the highs seen at the start of last week. If successful, the bulls may return to the previous scenario of a Fibonacci impulse extension with potential up to $94K. The release of US labour market statistics could, in theory, either accelerate the rally or reverse the trend. If the report is very strong, markets may once again price in a Fed rate rise in October, reducing demand for risk assets. And Bitcoin may prove to be quite sensitive to this.

News Background
Bitcoin has recorded its best third quarter since 2017, posting a 42.7% gain. According to SoSoValue, investors poured $6.34 billion into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the three months, compared with outflows of around $5 billion in the second quarter.
The crypto market rallied following the failure of the CLARITY Act in the US Senate, as regulation by the SEC and CFTC has begun to move more swiftly and, in some respects, more favourably to the crypto industry, according to Bitwise. The main risk is that the current support for cryptocurrencies is not enshrined in law and could be revoked by a new US administration in 2029.
Citigroup has raised its 12-month forecast for Bitcoin from $82K to $113K, attributing the revision to increased activity in the crypto market, a favourable macroeconomic backdrop and the return of investors to ETFs. The target price for Ethereum has been raised from $2.24K to $3.03K.
The payment system Visa and the British banking group Lloyds tested round-the-clock settlements in the USDC stablecoin; transactions took less than an hour and were processed even at weekends. South Korea's Jeonbuk Bank has completed a test of cross-border transfers using stablecoins via a private channel on the Solana blockchain. However, details of the counterparties and transaction amounts were not published on the mainnet.
The FxPro Analyst Team
Fig. 1. The cryptocurrency market is taking a couple of steps upwards after a lull.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin has returned to the region of its September highs, attempting to reach new peaks.
Summary: The crypto market rose by 1.4% on expectations that the Fed would pause its rate hikes. Bitcoin is testing $86–87K and could target $94K. Support comes from ETF inflows and positive bank forecasts.
BITCOIN,ETHEREUM,AAVE,APTOS,LITECOIN,NEAR,IOTA,COSMOS

The US dollar has taken another step forward, driven by the resumption of growth in Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the bond market, competition with major corporations for investor capital continues. Meanwhile, the prolonged period of high oil prices is amplifying second-order effects, feeding into core inflation. This will force the Fed to raise rates more aggressively than is currently expected. The FOMC’s hawkish stance is underscored by recent comments from Lisa Cook, who confirmed that the factors mentioned above will drive up inflation in the coming months.

The oil market is sending a clear signal regarding expectations for the situation in the Middle East. November Brent futures are trading at $107, compared with $100 for the October expiry. The spread has risen sharply from $1–2 to $7. At first glance, this contradicts reports of an increase in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to 13 million barrels per day, compared with 19 million barrels per day before the US-Iran conflict, and the resumption of operations on the East-West pipeline, which is currently operating at half its capacity of 7 million barrels per day but is set to recover in the coming weeks.

At the same time, the US blockade is hindering the sale of Iranian oil. This carries the risk of an escalation of the conflict by Iran, which has been backed into a corner. The likelihood of such a scenario is growing, which is widening the backwardation. Moreover, in recent weeks, it has been difficult to see any signs of a rapprochement between the parties. It appears that the parties have even moved somewhat further away from the idea of seeking a compromise.

The longer Brent remains expensive, the higher the risks of core inflation accelerating due to second-order effects. Investors are gradually adjusting their expectations regarding the key interest rate. Over the past week, the expected weighted average rate for 15 September 2027 has risen by 21 basis points to 4.88%. In other words, the central forecast now points to a further 4–5 rate rises over the next 12 months, compared with 3–4 a few weeks ago. The probability of a rate rise in October stands at 73%.

At the ECB, by contrast, the probability of a tightening of monetary policy at the next meeting fell from 39% to 31% following Christine Lagarde’s speech. She stated that the European Central Bank needs to strike a balance between the risks of accelerating inflation and the risk of a significant slowdown in the eurozone economy due to tight monetary policy. She does not yet see widespread price pressures arising from high energy costs.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary. High oil prices are heightening inflationary risks and expectations of a Fed rate rise, thereby supporting the dollar. The ECB is taking a cautious stance due to the threat of a slowdown in the eurozone economy.

Fig. 1. October and November Brent futures have diverged.
Fig. 2. Key interest rates of the ECB and the Fed.

BRENT,WTI,US$IDX_Z26,EURUSD,TLT.O

Bitcoin has once again failed to hold above $85K, as the upward momentum triggered by weaker-than-expected inflation figures quickly fizzled amid an ongoing sell-off in global government bonds. The leading cryptocurrency is caught between pressure from a strengthening dollar and the desire among some investors to temporarily steer clear of falling assets. The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight. It is easy to find periods in history when turmoil in traditional finance has benefited crypto. Still, it is impossible to predict when the market will shift from caution to panic.

Bitcoin rose by 6.1% in September to $83.7K, defying the seasonal trends of the year's worst months for the second month running. From a seasonal perspective, October is one of the best months of the year, earning it the informal nickname 'Uptober'. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has ended the month with gains on 10 occasions. The average gain was 27.4%, while the average decline was 13%.
News Background
Institutional investors have shifted their focus: instead of debating the merits of buying the asset, they have moved on to discussing the practical applications of Bitcoin and the development of capital market infrastructure around it, according to TD Cowen.
Bitfinex highlights Bitcoin's resilience, which has successfully weathered a historically weak September. However, the current BTC rally is losing momentum. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields are weighing down sentiment.
Unrealised on-chain profits among short-term holders have reached a 21-month high, raising the risk of profit-taking and a short-term correction for the leading cryptocurrency, CryptoQuant warns.
Signs of a sell-off are also emerging in the altcoin sector. The number of transactions transferring coins to exchanges has reached its highest level since October 2025, which typically indicates preparations for selling.
Bitcoin is entering a 'gold rush' period that could last until 2034, according to Strategy founder Michael Saylor. In his view, the main driver of BTC's growth over the next three years will be the development of bank lending secured against the leading cryptocurrency.
The FxPro Analyst Team
Fig. 1. Crypto market capitalisation has been hovering around $2.86T for the 8th day in a row.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin is failing to capitalise on positive data amid pressure from the bond market.

Summary: The crypto market is holding at $2.86T, but a stronger dollar and the bond sell-off raise the risk of a flight from assets. Bitcoin ended September higher and enters a strong season.
BITCOIN,IOTA,NEAR,AAVE,INTERNET,FILECOIN,ETHCLASSIC

Over the past 24 hours, among the most liquid coins, there has been a slight trend towards profit-taking, with the sharpest declines seen in Hedera (−12.1%), Algorand (−7%) and IOTA (−6.5%), with the top performers being Sushiswap (+5.1%), NEAR Protocol (+5%) and Aave (+3.8%). Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP and Solana are recording declines of around 1%. It appears the market is rotating between altcoins. Still, major cryptocurrencies are under pressure due to their close ties to traditional markets, where sentiment is more wait-and-see and cautious.

Bitcoin has been trading predominantly between $83K and $84K over the past 24 hours up to Wednesday morning, with intraday volatility narrowing. The leading cryptocurrency is finding support at a former strong resistance level, which halted its rise in May and earlier in September. This area also acted as support at the end of last year and from February to April 2025. We should be prepared for a prolonged tug-of-war, but we remain optimistic, anticipating an upward breakout from this consolidation in the coming weeks.
News Background
An inflow of new capital into ETFs supported Bitcoin's rise last week; however, profit-taking and selling pressure in the derivatives market intensified, according to Glassnode. The proportion of 'hot money' reached 18.8%, while the share of BTC supply in profit rose from 69.3% to 74%.
Large Bitcoin holders have accumulated $14.09 billion in unrealised gains, as trading volumes have dropped sharply. CryptoQuant considers this combination to be a 'straight path to a correction'.
Large BTC transfers to exchanges rose significantly in September. Whale activity intensified as the price rose above $87.3K. The $84K–$87K range could become an area of increased supply, notes analyst PelinayPA.
The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has tightened its oversight of crypto ETFs, eliminating schemes that allowed investors to hide profits from tax. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's fund, were not affected.
Users withdrew $463 million worth of cryptocurrency from the Bitget exchange over the past 24 hours. The outflow began after the crypto exchange resumed withdrawals, which had been suspended following a $387 million hack of its hot wallets. The theft of cryptocurrencies from Bitget was the largest this year.
The FxPro Analyst Team
Fig. 1. The crypto market has been trading within a narrow range for the third day.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin is testing a key support level seen in recent years.
Summary: The crypto market is consolidating around $2.86 trillion: Bitcoin is holding support at $83K–$84K, major cryptocurrencies are falling, and capital is shifting between altcoins amid investor caution.

BITCOIN,ETHEREUM,BINANCECOIN,XRP,SOLANA,HEDERA,ALGORAND,IOTA,SUSHISWAP,NEAR,AAVE

The US dollar retreated from two-month highs amid a slump in the probability of an October Fed rate rise from 72% to 45% and a fall in oil prices. The area above 101 on the dollar index has been a pivot point for over a year. This is where the corrective rebound in May 2025 halted; the growth in June and July from the lows seen at the start of 2026 has stalled here as well. Despite the pullback, the greenback is ending September with its best performance since June, thanks to the Fed’s ‘hawkish’ shift and the surge in long-term Treasury yields to 24-year highs, which has fuelled the US currency’s rally over the past three weeks.

According to the New York Fed President John Williams, there is no urgency to make further changes to monetary policy following the move in September. Yes, inflation remains high, and another rate hike will most likely be required. However, he has toned down the sense of urgency, signalling that he is leaning towards a hike before the end of the year. This has caused the US dollar to pull back as the market reassesses the outlook.

Williams is regarded as the voice of the centrists on the FOMC; however, the balance of power could shift back towards the hawks should strong US labour market data be released on Friday. The markets have not abandoned the idea of an October rate rise, which suggests the US dollar remains in a strong position.

His comments fell on fertile ground, as the foreign exchange market was already ripe for profit-taking on the dollar’s rise to the upper end of its range, with traders taking some chips off the table at the end of the month and quarter, shortly before key news releases.

Other currencies attempted to capitalise on the dollar’s retreat. The yen rose to two-week highs thanks to numerous verbal interventions by the government and expectations of an overnight rate hike from 1.25% to 1.5% as early as the BoJ’s October meeting. If the Bank of Japan does this, while the Fed does not, the decline in USDJPY may continue.

The euro is still reeling from Christine Lagarde’s dovish surprise. The ECB President followed Kevin Warsh’s line of argument, noting that the rally in bond yields is tightening financial conditions, thereby doing the European Central Bank’s job for it. Not long ago, similar rhetoric from the Fed Chair caused the US dollar to fall; now it is the single currency’s turn. As a result, EURUSD fell towards 16-month lows, just above 1.1300.

The greenback’s retreat has breathed new life into GBPUSD. The pound has suffered due to the rising likelihood of a fiscal and energy crisis. Diesel prices in Britain are hitting record highs, while sterling’s monthly implied volatility has jumped to its highest level since July, indicating traders’ nervousness ahead of the budget announcement.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary. The dollar retreated as expectations of an October Fed hike eased. The yen gained on bets of a BoJ rate hike, while the euro and pound remained under pressure.

Fig. 1. Annual rate of consumer inflation in the US and the Fed’s policy rate.
Fig. 2. Key interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the Fed.

US$IDX_Z26,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY,BRENT,WTI

The stock market has identified its friends and foes. The main headwinds for stock indices are geopolitics and the Fed’s intention to tighten monetary policy. This leads to rising bond yields, weakens corporate fundamentals and intensifies competition with Treasuries for investors’ money. The main positive is the resurgence of the artificial intelligence boom and the renewed interest in technology-sector companies. Unsurprisingly, the Nasdaq 100 rebounded sharply in September to near its highs, in contrast to the ongoing sell-off in the Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones.

History shows that a rapid rally in Treasury bond yields has not always led to a collapse in stock indices. In 1994, the Fed, under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, tightened policy while the S&P 500 continued to rise. Investors believed that the US economy was on a firm footing and would be able to withstand higher interest rates. Five years later, in 1999, Treasury yields began to rise even before the monetary tightening cycle began. The S&P 500 was saved by strong demand for shares in internet companies. The dot-com crash occurred shortly afterwards, with the index falling by around 49% from its peak in March 2000 to its low at the end of 2002.

Currently, the market is characterised by a mix of a strong economy and heightened demand for shares in technology companies specialising in artificial intelligence. This is enabling the S&P 500 to remain resilient even as yields on 10-year Treasuries have soared to their highest levels since 2007 and those on 30-year Treasuries to their highest since 2004. Investors are not even deterred by the looming inversion of the yield curve, which has often been a harbinger of recession.

The US economy is currently on a firm footing, and data due later this week is expected to confirm that a rate rise is both acceptable and necessary. Under these conditions, only a bursting AI bubble could trigger a full-scale correction in the S&P 500. Until there are signs of growth slowing, investors will stick to a buy-the-dip strategy.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary. The US equity market is holding at record highs, supported by a strong economy and demand for AI, despite rising yields and the risks of Fed policy tightening.

Fig. 1. In September, the Nasdaq 100 returned to its highs, as the Russell 2000 remained under pressure.
Fig. 2. The S&P 500, the Fed’s key interest rate and 10-year Treasury yields in the 1990s.

USSPX500,USNDAQ100,US30,US2000,TLT.O

The US dollar opened the week with a gap up following a two-week rally. This was likely driven by the triggering of stop-loss orders in Asia. Some of these gains were given back as European markets opened, though this did not alter the bullish picture. Near 101.0, the dollar index has returned to the region of its summer highs. This retest of resistance is taking place against the backdrop of an ongoing reassessment of the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, driven primarily by persistent high levels of geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Warsh’s determination to tackle inflation. The US has rejected Iran’s proposal for a short-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, whilst Tehran is unwilling to soften its demands. Brent crude has resumed its rise, pulling the dollar higher at the expense of risk assets.

Bolstered by Treasury bond yields, the US dollar sees no obstacles to continuing its rally. All the more so as its rivals have their own vulnerabilities. The yield spread between French and German bonds continues to widen, indicating political risk in Europe.

France is being dubbed the ‘second Greece’, recalling the European debt crisis of 2012, yet the situation appears even more alarming. The public debt of the eurozone’s second-largest economy is approaching 120 per cent, which is problematic not only because of the cost of servicing it. With such a high level of debt, the economy’s responsiveness to stimulus measures drops sharply. What makes the situation even worse is that the tax burden there (43% of GDP) is already the highest in the G7 – compared with 27% in the US and 38% in Germany – and the second highest in the world after Denmark (45%), although Denmark’s public debt stands at just 27% of GDP. If this is not a dead end from which the only way out is a partial default, then, at the very least, it will require an unprecedented level of creativity and coordination from the French authorities.

USDJPY has resumed its rise, despite Scott Bessent’s statements that he had discussed with Satsuki Katayama the need to strengthen the yen. Investors argue that raising the key interest rate every three months rather than every six months no longer reflects the reality, given that the Fed is expected to deliver four hikes over the next 12 months, including a rise at the end of October following a tightening in September. By contrast, in Japan, the likelihood of consecutive rate rises is considered low.

Investors are awaiting news from the Middle East, monitoring oil prices and preparing for the release of US employment data for September. The Fed has a dual mandate. If the labour market remains strong, the central bank will be able to raise the federal funds rate in October with a clear conscience, at two consecutive FOMC meetings. The probability of such an outcome exceeds 70%, according to CME rate futures.

The euro is counting on inflation for support. According to Bloomberg analysts’ forecasts, consumer prices in the eurozone are set to rise from 3.2% to 3.7% in September. Investors have not seen such high rates for the past three years and will be watching closely to see whether high energy prices feed through to core inflation, which would increase the chances of an ECB rate rise in October from the 39% currently implied.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: The dollar is strengthening as rising yields and oil prices bolster it, while vulnerabilities in the euro and yen add to its advantage ahead of US jobs data.
Fig. 1. The US Dollar Index and the price per barrel of Brent.
Fig. 2. Inflation in the eurozone and the price of Brent.

US$IDX_Z26,EURUSD,USDJPY,BRENT,WTI,TLT.O