Market Overview
The crypto market is continuing the recovery that began on Friday, but is rising more slowly; after four consecutive days of gains, it has managed to recoup only two-thirds of the losses incurred on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. At $2.83T, market capitalisation is now 1.1% higher than a day ago, but 3.5% below the level seen a week earlier. At current levels, the crypto market is only just approaching the support zone that held at the end of September. This caution clearly indicates that cryptocurrencies are in the early stages of a bull market, with buying on dips evident but overall sentiment remaining fairly cautious. Among altcoins, a positive trend has prevailed over the last 24 hours, with the ratio of rising to falling coins around 12:1. The top gainers were Filecoin (+13.2%), Internet Computer (+12.8%), and NEAR Protocol (+11%). The worst performers were Cosmos (−3.5%), Theta Network (−1.9%) and Immutable (−1.5%).

Bitcoin is starting the week near $84K, continuing to move away from the 50-day moving average, which it touched on Thursday. At current levels, the BTC price exceeds the previous support zone, suggesting that resistance has not shifted downward and may only materialise near $87K. Only a sustained move above this level will pave the way to $94K, a target we have been discussing since the middle of last month. Although the bullish reversal at the end of last week was not particularly impressive in magnitude, it clearly demonstrated that the balance of power lies with the bulls and that buyers are keen to step in during dips.

News Background
According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs totalled $681.1 million over the week, the highest since the end of June. Outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs have continued for the second week in a row. Net outflows from ETH ETFs amounted to $542.1 million, the highest since January.
TD Cowen has raised its Bitcoin forecasts but warned of risks for Strategy shareholders. The issue of new securities and the company’s financial obligations may limit returns for Strategy’s ordinary shareholders.
According to Lookonchain, mining company MARA has transferred 996 BTC to Galaxy Digital addresses. MARA had previously sold part of its Bitcoin holdings while continuing to mine and accumulate new coins.
Justin Drake, one of Ethereum’s lead developers, has called on the crypto market to go into ‘bunker mode’ due to the risk of crypto wallets being hacked as AI capabilities in solving mathematical problems advance. According to him, this could happen within ‘months, not years’, as previously expected. Glassnode has estimated that 21% of the total Bitcoin supply is vulnerable to such an attack.
The FxPro Analyst Team
Fig. 1. The crypto market is on the verge of entering a former support zone.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin has risen for a fourth consecutive day, having rebounded from the 50-day MA on Thursday.
Summary: The crypto market has been rising for a fourth day, but the recovery remains cautious. Bitcoin is holding steady at $84K, while outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs are heightening risks.
BITCOIN,ETHEREUM,FILECOIN,INTERNET,NEAR,COSMOS,THETA,IMMUTABLE

The US currency remains strong.
The euro is struggling due to the budget crisis in France.

The US dollar opened the week at 18-month highs and near the upper limit of last week’s trading range. The DXY remains closely correlated with oil prices and came under pressure at the start of the day, but soon resumed its upward trend. Markets are increasingly convinced that the deal with Russia to supply diesel to the global market will have a limited impact on Brent, whilst the escalation in the Middle East is keeping oil prices elevated.

Alongside Brent, Treasury bond yields are rising, as are the chances of the Fed continuing its cycle of monetary tightening, fuelling interest in the dollar. Experts at the Wall Street Journal expect yields to remain elevated, easing to 4.78% by the end of next year, compared with 5.3% at the end of last week. These securities will remain attractive for an extended period, thereby fuelling demand for the greenback. Interest may even intensify if traders believe the sell-off is over and yields are at their highest in more than 20 years.

Equally important, the US economy can withstand high interest rates, unlike the European economy. The budget crisis in France and political uncertainty surrounding the elections are acting as headwinds for the economy. Investors are unsure how this might all end, with the most likely scenario being a clash between the government and parliament, followed by the Prime Minister’s resignation. For the first time in the history of the eurozone, French bond yields have risen above those of Italy, turning the France-Italy spread positive. Italy’s budget deficit is almost half that of France. Even more surprisingly, Giorgia Meloni’s government has set a record for the longest continuous tenure in office in the entire post-war period, ensuring a level of political stability that no one would have expected from it some four years ago. Throughout this period, the spread between French and Italian bond yields has narrowed, and there is as yet no sign that this trend has halted.

According to Deutsche Bank, investors are factoring the debt crisis into EURUSD quotes. Still, they are underestimating the impact of factors such as disappointment with AI, whether due to a failed IPO or from frustration over technology companies' inability to generate profits in line with their actual and promised expenditure. In other words, there is a risk of a stock market bubble bursting, which would cause risk appetite to deteriorate sharply, triggering a wave of demand for the dollar and short-term Treasuries as safe havens.

In the short term, the US September inflation report could influence the greenback. Consumer price inflation is forecast to accelerate from 3.4% to 3.7% y/y. Significantly higher figures would trigger a reassessment of the likelihood of a Fed rate rise in October. That said, inflation has statistically come in below expectations more often than not in recent months. Should this pattern persist, it would give the FOMC the leeway to postpone a rate rise until December, allowing markets to maintain low volatility.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: The dollar is supported by elevated Treasury yields and weakness in the euro amid the crisis in France. US inflation may shape expectations for the Fed’s next rate increase.
Fig. 1. The US Dollar Index and oil prices have been moving in close tandem since the end of September.
Fig. 2. The yield spread between 10-year French and Italian government bonds has reached historic highs.

US$IDX_Z26,EURUSD,Brent,WTI,TLT.O

A strong economy and renewed interest in AI are supporting the stock market.
Fed rate rises, problems with the Russell 2000, and the narrow scope of the S&P 500 rally are worrying investors.

The stock market is celebrating an anniversary. Four years ago, the S&P 500 began a rally that propelled it up by 117%. It is the third-longest and third-largest bull market since 1947. According to CFRA, if the uptrend continues into a fifth year, the index’s average gain is 21%. This represents significant potential for investors to extend the rally beyond technology companies.

As a rule, bull markets begin when the Fed eases monetary policy, and liquidity flows into risky assets. In 2022, by contrast, the Federal Reserve implemented its most aggressive cycle of rate rises in 40 years; however, this did not prevent the S&P 500 from beginning an upward trend. The reasons lie in the artificial intelligence boom, which has seen companies’ market capitalisation increase by $40 trillion. Nvidia’s shares have risen by an impressive 1,900%, and its market capitalisation is already approaching $6 trillion.

The Fed has now embarked on its next cycle of monetary tightening, whilst interest in artificial intelligence remains high, although it is increasingly being put to the test. According to a Brookings study, for technology companies to justify the colossal investments in AI, they will need to generate $3.5 trillion in profits as early as 2027. This is a staggering figure, and failure to achieve it, coupled with a failed IPO or disruptions within the AI ecosystem, could trigger a sell-off in the S&P 500.

Given the rally’s narrow scope, problems in a single sector risk dragging the entire market down. Indeed, the gap in returns between the standard S&P 500 and the equally weighted indices over the four years of the bull market has exceeded 50 percentage points. Only a third of shares are trading above their 50-day moving averages, down from 70% in mid-August.

Small-cap companies, which are sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy, are facing serious problems. Around half of the shares of companies in the Russell 2000 are trading 20% or more below their 52-week highs.

For now, the limited scope of the S&P 500 rally and the difficulties faced by small-cap companies are being offset by the AI boom and a strong economy. How long will this last?

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: The S&P 500 rally is being supported by a strong economy and the AI boom, but its narrow scope, the weakness of the Russell 2000 and the risk of further Fed rate rises are heightening the threat of a correction.

Fig. 1. Nvidia is driving the S&P 500 higher.
Fig. 2. The S&P 500 is hitting new highs, while the Russell 2000 has entered a correction.

USSPX500,USNDAQ100,US2000,US30,NVDA.O

Market Overview
The crypto market’s capitalisation fell by 1% to $2.81T, approaching its 50-day moving average at its lowest point early in the day amid reduced liquidity following the close of regular US trading, but it quickly rebounded and rose at the start of the Asian trading session. The broader market context is causing concern, with the Nasdaq-100 falling and the US Dollar Index moving closer to 18-month highs. Altcoins are retreating across the board, with the ratio of gainers to losers standing at 1:18. The best performers are BAT (+13.6%), Tezos (+2.5%) and Tron (−0.7%). The biggest fallers are Near (−9.8%), Algorand (−7.7%) and VeChain (−7.4%).

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has retreated to 57 (greed), its lowest level since 18 September. Sentiment is returning to neutral territory in the absence of price gains. However, as long as the index remains in the upper half of the scale, we remain within a bull market characterised by buying on dips.

Bitcoin’s performance since the start of the day supports our conclusion that buying appetite remains strong. Under pressure from selling in the equity markets, the leading cryptocurrency slipped to $81K, triggering a heavy layer of stop-loss orders and once again touching the 50-day moving average. In this region, as on Thursday last week, BTC found solid demand and quickly rebounded to $83.7K, demonstrating just how easily it can rise after long positions have been liquidated. If this was indeed a healthy correction, Bitcoin could rise quite quickly to $85K or retest $87K. It is also interesting to note that this sharp reversal to the upside could herald a strengthening of risk appetite on a more global scale. However, this optimism needs confirmation and could quickly fade without external validation.
News Background
High US government bond yields, expensive oil, a slowdown in ETF inflows and profit-taking left Bitcoin vulnerable to the liquidation of leveraged positions in the first half of October, according to XWIN.
Strategy has continued to buy Bitcoin for the fourth week running, but has reduced its purchases to 249 BTC at an average price of $86.2K. The company now holds 848,250 BTC at an average price of $75.4K.
Last week, Bitmine purchased an additional 12,532 ETH, bringing the total amount of Ethereum in its reserves to 6.03 million ETH (4.94% of the total supply). To reach its target of purchasing 5% of the total ETH supply, the company needs to buy a further 72,000 ETH or so.
The market capitalisation of tokenised assets has reached a record $3.9 billion. The leading blockchain is BNB Chain with a market cap of $1.2 billion, followed by Ethereum ($842 million) and Solana ($742 million). Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has postponed the launch of trading in tokenised shares until the first quarter of 2027, citing a lack of available products and client demand.
According to Bloomberg, the US Department of Justice is investigating whether the Binance cryptocurrency exchange is complying with the terms of its 2023 agreement with the US authorities. The investigation concerns the circumvention of sanctions against Iran.
The FxPro Analyst Team
Fig. 1. The crypto market has once again retreated to the 50-day MA, before quickly rebounding from it.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin slipped lower, where it once again found buyer interest.
Summary: The crypto market rebounded from the 50-day MA: Bitcoin demand remains, but dollar and bond pressure and weak altcoins mean any rally needs further confirmation.

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Marine Le Pen’s calls for the ECB to cut interest rates and for a reduction in EU transfers are fuelling panic.
The combination of a strong economy and attractive assets is driving the US dollar higher.

The US dollar has resumed its upward trend alongside oil prices and Treasury bond yields. US Treasury auctions are drawing capital from the secondary market to the primary market, fuelling a rise in yields. At the same time, escalating rhetoric surrounding the Middle East has sent oil prices back up, despite reports of a recovery in export volumes from the region.

The debt crisis is putting pressure on the euro. The volume of scheduled redemptions of French bonds in 2027 will rise from €60.2 billion to €187.4 billion. By 2029, this figure will increase to €283.7 billion. Paris is in desperate need of cash, forcing the government to increase the volume of bond issues and fuelling panic amongst investors. Meanwhile, statements by leading presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, regarding cuts to EU transfers and the need for the ECB to lower interest rates risk putting France at odds with both the European Union and the European Central Bank.

Foreign bondholders are incurring losses due to both falling prices and the decline of the EURUSD exchange rate. These trends have coincided since the second half of August, creating a vicious circle from which it is difficult to escape.

The rise of US stock indices to record highs is not helping; on the contrary, it is creating headwinds for EURUSD. The dollar is acting as a safe-haven currency against European risks. At the same time, investors are channelling dollar-denominated capital into the stock market to a far greater extent than before. Consequently, we do not expect a significant decline in yields on US bonds. This means the S&P 500’s historic highs are proving detrimental to the main currency pair, reigniting talk of American exceptionalism.

Indeed, the combination of attractive assets and a strong economy explains why the dollar is not falling, even as the chances of the Fed tightening monetary policy in October have fallen to 19%. Meanwhile, the probability of an ECB rate rise at the end of October has fallen to 10% due to the crisis in France and deteriorating trade conditions, which threaten to slow the economy.

American exceptionalism helps explain why USDJPY is rising, despite the Fed and the Bank of Japan being expected to raise rates at roughly the same pace. The wide yield spread in the debt markets and the S&P 500’s record highs are playing into the dollar’s favour.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: The dollar gains on US economic strength and demand for assets, while French debt risks, expectations of ECB rate cuts, and euro weakness weigh on EURUSD.
Fig. 1. EURUSD and the yield on 10-year French government bonds have moved in sync.
Fig. 2. The S&P 500 continues to rise strongly amid a strengthening dollar.

Eurusd,usdjpy,brent,wti,usspx500,france40

A stronger dollar, a rally in Treasury yields and oil’s reluctance to fall are creating headwinds for gold.
Central banks are taking advantage of gold’s dip to boost their reserves.

Gold has been unable to recover following a disappointing September, when the price fell by 6% against the backdrop of a Fed rate hike, a strengthening US dollar and a surge in long-term Treasury yields to 24-year highs. Other factors weighing on gold include oil’s stubborn refusal to fall, despite reports of a resumption of exports from the Middle East.

High energy prices suggest that inflationary pressures remain, forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, which works against gold. The resumption of attacks by Iran on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure has pushed the price of Brent back above $100 per barrel, triggering another wave of sell-offs in risky assets across the markets. According to Kpler, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 91% to 74% of pre-war levels.

This is all the more so as investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will tighten policy in October or postpone the move until December. CME futures put the probability of a rate rise in three weeks at 22% for October and 85% for December; however, FOMC officials are expressing conflicting views. Consequently, investors are playing it safe ahead of the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, hoping for clarification on the central bank’s stance.

While everyone is selling, a great opportunity to buy is emerging. In September, China increased its gold reserves by a further 740,000 ounces, marking the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation. Meanwhile, according to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), central bank activity, coupled with mounting fiscal challenges and persistently high geopolitical risks, will drive gold prices to $5,013 per ounce within 12 months.

The LBMA noted that the energy crisis, persistent inflation, and rising bond yields to 24-year highs are creating a strong headwind for precious metals. The fact that the price of an ounce of gold has remained above $4,000 so far is evidence of strong demand for the physical asset.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: A strong dollar, rising yields and costly oil weigh on gold, while central-bank buying and firm physical demand support the outlook for a recovery.
Fig. 1. The rise in oil prices since September is putting pressure on gold.
Fig. 2. Gold and the Fed’s key interest rate.

Gold,goldeuro,goldgr,brent,wti

Oil prices are falling only slightly, despite reports of rising exports from the Middle East.
Fears of an escalation in the conflict are keeping risk premiums high.

The US dollar has retreated from 18-month highs since Monday afternoon on signs that debt markets are stabilising. Investors reacted cautiously to news of snap elections in Spain against the backdrop of the housing crisis. The yield spread between local and German bonds fell below 140 basis points, whilst EURUSD rebounded to 1.1240 after slipping to 1.1160 at the start of trading on Monday. The initial shock has passed, but this does not mean the end of the European drama.

The US dollar is finding support thanks to the strong appeal of US assets, including higher Treasury yields and the Fed’s more active monetary policy tightening. Even the slowdown in business activity in the services sector, as measured by the ISM, from 55.4 to 54.9, did not particularly alarm investors, as readings above 50 indicate that the economy remains in expansion, albeit at a slower pace.

Pressure on the euro stems not only from the fiscal crisis in France and the political crisis in Spain. The eurozone is a net importer of energy commodities, so the 65% rally in oil prices since the start of the year has worsened its terms of trade. Meanwhile, WTI crude has been falling for the fourth week running, having lost around 15% from its peak – twice the decline seen in Brent. All this is despite a recovery in exports to the Middle East, price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and Iraq’s search for new tankers, which are fuelling bearish sentiment on the EURUSD.

According to Vortexa, crude oil and condensate flows in September recovered to 91% of pre-war levels at 16.3M bpd. However, refined fuel exports from the Middle East stand at only 60% of pre-March levels. Kpler estimates that the share of petroleum product shipments via the Strait of Hormuz is 11% of total volume, significantly lower than the 20% recorded at the start of the year. The main reason for this is the closure of oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and other countries due to the hostilities.

Brent’s relative resilience stems from fears of further supply disruptions, coupled with pent-up demand in Eurasia following months of conflict that was originally intended to be short-term. Initially, Europe and China preferred to adopt a wait-and-see approach as prices rose, but by October, sentiment had shifted: there was simply no further room to delay purchases.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Summary: Brent is falling more slowly than WTI: the risk of supply disruptions is supporting the premium, although exports from the Middle East are recovering. High oil prices and political risks are weighing on the euro.

Fig. 1. The US ISM Services Index remains firmly in expansionary territory.
Fig. 2. The German and US terms of trade indices are moving in opposite directions.

Market Overview
The crypto market has taken a slight step back over the past day. Its market capitalisation has fallen by approximately 0.7% to $2.91T. Cryptocurrencies reacted to a fresh wave of selling in debt markets and the dollar's strength, choosing to ignore the Nasdaq-100's new all-time highs, driven by a handful of names. This market sentiment is fostering a cautious, wait-and-see attitude, as pressure in the debt markets could at any moment escalate into a broad-based sell-off. Nevertheless, this wariness is no reason to sell just yet, and cautious traders will want to see how the market behaves at the boundaries of the $2.85T–$2.95T range first. The most significant movements over the past 24 hours have been seen in Filecoin (+11.3%), Internet Computer (+5.1%) and Near Protocol (+3.6%), while the worst performers were Dash (−6.1%), Stellar (−4.2%) and The Graph (−3.5%).

On Monday, Bitcoin once again failed to break through its recent highs, retreating to $85.2K by the start of active trading in Europe on Tuesday, while remaining at the upper end of the trading range seen over the past two weeks. The upward trend channel is under threat, but a breakout has not yet been confirmed. A break below $84K would signal a victory for the bears, and a break below the recent local lows at $83K would confirm this with even greater certainty. In this scenario, the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $80K fairly quickly.

News Background
Strategy has been buying Bitcoin for the third week in a row, adding a further 334 BTC worth $29 million. The company now holds 848,000 BTC, purchased at an average price of $75.4K.
Peter Schiff, head of Euro Pacific Capital and a crypto-sceptic, acknowledged that Strategy's STRC preference shares have recovered to almost their par value of $100. However, he said that Strategy had lost its main channel for raising funds by selling STRC, which it had previously used to buy Bitcoin. Since May, Strategy has been financing its BTC purchases using MSTR ordinary shares.
Strive made its largest Bitcoin purchase since June and got closer to MARA, which ranks fourth in corporate BTC reserves. Last week, the company purchased a further 2,000 BTC for $169 million, bringing its reserves to 29,462 BTC.
BitMine purchased an additional 15,112 ETH last week, bringing the total amount of Ethereum in its reserves to 6.016 million ETH (4.93% of the total supply). To reach its target of purchasing 5% of the total ETH supply, the company needs to buy a further 85,000 ETH.
The queue for withdrawals from Ethereum staking has grown to a year-to-date high of 786,000 ETH (around 2% of the total locked supply). Withdrawals currently take over 13 days. Around 1.5 million ETH has accumulated in the deposit queue, with a waiting time of approximately 25 days. The rate at which validators can join and leave the Ethereum network is limited to avoid sudden changes in the network's security parameters.
The FxPro Analyst Team

Fig. 1. The crypto market has taken a small step back from the upper boundary of the range.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin is testing its upward support.
Summary: The crypto market retreated by 0.7% to $2.91T amid a strong US dollar and a bond sell-off. Bitcoin is trading at $85.2K; a break below $84K would increase the risk of a decline towards $80K.

BITCOIN,ETHEREUM,FILECOIN,INTERNET,NEAR,DASH,STELLAR,GRAPH

Market Overview
The crypto market has risen by 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $2.92T, after briefly peaking at $2.94T as stop orders were triggered at the start of the Asian session. Although the dollar strengthened, the move was driven by a flight from European assets, while the likelihood of an October policy tightening by the Fed continued to decline. This is the fourth consecutive month to start on a positive note, and October is historically a positive month for cryptocurrencies. Having consolidated in recent days, cryptocurrencies may attempt a fresh breakout, surpassing September's highs. Among the most popular coins, the top performers over the past 24 hours were Aave (+11.8%), Aptos (+7.2%) and Litecoin (+4.8%). The worst performers over this period were NEAR Protocol (−5.8%), IOTA (−1.3%) and Cosmos (−1.2%), with the ratio of rising to falling coins close to 3:1.

Bitcoin is attempting to break higher. On Thursday, it failed to hold above $85K, but on Friday morning, it pushed into the $86–87K range, coming close to the highs seen at the start of last week. If successful, the bulls may return to the previous scenario of a Fibonacci impulse extension with potential up to $94K. The release of US labour market statistics could, in theory, either accelerate the rally or reverse the trend. If the report is very strong, markets may once again price in a Fed rate rise in October, reducing demand for risk assets. And Bitcoin may prove to be quite sensitive to this.

News Background
Bitcoin has recorded its best third quarter since 2017, posting a 42.7% gain. According to SoSoValue, investors poured $6.34 billion into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the three months, compared with outflows of around $5 billion in the second quarter.
The crypto market rallied following the failure of the CLARITY Act in the US Senate, as regulation by the SEC and CFTC has begun to move more swiftly and, in some respects, more favourably to the crypto industry, according to Bitwise. The main risk is that the current support for cryptocurrencies is not enshrined in law and could be revoked by a new US administration in 2029.
Citigroup has raised its 12-month forecast for Bitcoin from $82K to $113K, attributing the revision to increased activity in the crypto market, a favourable macroeconomic backdrop and the return of investors to ETFs. The target price for Ethereum has been raised from $2.24K to $3.03K.
The payment system Visa and the British banking group Lloyds tested round-the-clock settlements in the USDC stablecoin; transactions took less than an hour and were processed even at weekends. South Korea's Jeonbuk Bank has completed a test of cross-border transfers using stablecoins via a private channel on the Solana blockchain. However, details of the counterparties and transaction amounts were not published on the mainnet.
The FxPro Analyst Team
Fig. 1. The cryptocurrency market is taking a couple of steps upwards after a lull.
Fig. 2. Bitcoin has returned to the region of its September highs, attempting to reach new peaks.
Summary: The crypto market rose by 1.4% on expectations that the Fed would pause its rate hikes. Bitcoin is testing $86–87K and could target $94K. Support comes from ETF inflows and positive bank forecasts.
BITCOIN,ETHEREUM,AAVE,APTOS,LITECOIN,NEAR,IOTA,COSMOS